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CHARLOTTE -- The recession is over, and now the question economists are asking is how long will the recovery take?

UNC-Charlotte economist Dr. John Connaughton released his quarterly forecast for the state Tuesday.

“We do not see any signs that there's a double dip, or that there's anything significant out there that's kind of hidden below the radar that can derail this expansion,” he said. “We are in recovery. We have been for quite some time.”

Connaughton pointed to increasing consumer confidence and slower unemployment rates. Though he said unemployment will get below 10 percent this year, he said it will take about five years before North Carolina gets back to the five percent unemployment rate of the past.

“Most of the jobs that will be created this year, will be non residential construction jobs,” said Connaughton.

Specifically, shovel-ready construction projects funded by economic stimulus funds, which he said is helping turn around the economy. “Stimulus is really designed to try to turn the situation around and instead of the downward spiral create the upward spiral,” said Connaughton. “I think that it's doing that and it will finish that job by the end of 2010.”

The Employer's Association recently surveyed 251 companies to get a feel for how the recovery is going. “Forty-eight percent said that their business was either good or strong and 47 percent said that their business was going to be better than it was in 2009,” said Kenny Colbert of the Employer’s Association.

Of those 251 companies, 65 have created some new jobs recently, and 24 said they would be soon. Colbert said we are starting to see job growth and it will continue through 2011.

Connaughton said things are moving forward, but they are still fragile.

The national May unemployment statistics will be released Friday.